City Lit Blog

Predictions are so last year – this is the year of expectations!

Story added 8th May 2017

 

2016 was an awful year to be in the opinion poll or prediction business; 2015 wasn’t too good either. The Tories weren’t meant to win a majority in 2015; Brexit wasn’t meant to happen; and we should have now been in the second 100 days of the Clinton Presidency. Even the legendary Nate Silver, the guy who predicted every state correctly in the 2012 Presidential Election, got the 2016 one wrong.

All the polls are telling us that there will be a substantial Conservative majority on June 8th. The only question currently debated is how big that majority will be. None of that means they are correct as there is still well over a month for things to change, but if the polls are to be believed, this is going to be the most boring and predictable election in decades.

However, remember that predictions have been a bit of a mug’s game recently, so let’s move away from predictions and look at expectations. The expectations game is something all of the main parties are trying to manage and spin at the moment and that’s likely to increase as the election gets nearer (that’s a prediction!)

Theresa May has called an election just two years after her party won an overall majority. If the Fixed Term Parliament Act had been allowed to run its course we had another three years to wait before going to the ballot box. So why an election now? 

>> continue reading this piece at the Huffington Post [external website]

 

Do you have an interest in politics and current affairs? Mark is teaching a class on the US Supreme Court this summer at City Lit, book your place today.

Mark Malcomson is the Principal and CEO at City Lit. Read his previous pieces on the US elections in the Huffington Post.