City Lit Blog

President Trump – what happens after the earthquake?

Story added 25th Nov 2016

President Donald Trump

In the aftermath of an earthquake or a volcanic explosion, there is the initial shock and then people survey the wreckage and see what is left standing. Many consider the long-term implications and whether there will be aftershocks; some will believe that their world has completely changed and try to understand what the new landscape will look like; and some will wonder whether it is safe to continue to inhabit the area, given the ongoing danger.

All analogies can only be taken so far before collapsing under the strain of their contradictions. That being said, what happened on 8th November 2016 was a seismic event in the political world like nothing seen in our lifetime, and the analogy holds well enough to be examined in depth.

In hindsight, the signs were there. The LA Times tracking poll, which consistently had Trump ahead throughout the Fall; Professor Allan Lichmann, who had correctly predicted every President since 1984, saying Trump would win; and, of course, Donald Trump’s seemingly unshakeable faith in himself.  Nevertheless, we were assured, by the overwhelming majority of experts, that Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President. Hillary and her team, although famously superstitious, were planning how to govern and who to appoint. Ignoring the cracks, they were busy building the house on a fault line!

In the 1980s, the BBC a weatherman Michael Fish was denounced for failing to forecast a terrible storm. By comparison, events last month were off the Richter Scale. The whole political industry: pundits, pollsters, commentators, and journalists failed to see what was coming. Despite losing the popular vote by two million and counting, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by the biggest margin for a Republican since 1988.  He is now in the process of pulling together his Cabinet, and somewhat belatedly the other 4,000 plus other appointments, which will make up the Trump Administration for four, or even possibly, eight years.

So how do the Democrats survey the wreckage of what was assumed to be a coronation?

>> Continue reading this piece at the Huffington Post [external website]


Mark Malcomson is the Principal and CEO at City Lit. Read his previous pieces on the US elections in the Huffington Post:

>> Clinton Vs Trump: of landslides, mandates and 2000 Redux [external website]

>> Clinton Vs Trump: October and Surprises [external website]

>> Clinton vs Trump - The electoral college is key, often misunderstood and could be about to make a big shift [external website]

>> Clinton vs Trump - Why This Election Is Different [external website]